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斯布纳:澳储行11月利率声明显露温和鸽派立场

发布时间:11/3/2015 4:36:34 PM 来源: 浏览:1272

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11月3日,澳储行决定按息不动,然而利率声明中透露出温和鸽派立场。

CMC Markets首席市场分析师里克·斯布纳(Ric Spooner)表示,相关内容预计将在分析师中引起激辩,其中关键的一句是:“理事会成员还观察到,通胀前景给未来施行宽松政策,为内需提供适当支持留出了空间”。

 
ACB News《澳华财经在线》报道,里克·斯布纳(Ric Spooner)认为央行在宽松倾向上的表述相对温和,整个声明中理事会并未暗示近来国内需求状况恶化。事实上,声明指出,商业调查揭示经济环境逐步改善,就业增长势头也在加强。
 
但是,如果经济走软,通胀显然不会给澳储行进一步削减利率带来阻力。
 
里克·斯布纳(Ric Spooner)表示,有人可能会从中读出宽松倾向,因为央行明确提到可能会进一步宽松。当前澳元反弹,挺立于72美分上方,暗示市场早前反应的预设是澳储行将较为中立。


澳东时间11.30决议发布,澳元急跌约0.3美分,随后反弹并稳定于72美分一线。
 
从澳元走势日K线图看,若自C点到D点的跌幅是A点到B点的127%,则其量度下跌目标指向0.70662 ( 0.72967-182*127%=7066 对应图中D点位), 而近期澳元/美元汇率自低点6908点回升至近期高位7382点后回落,其61.8%的黄金回撤位在7089点一线(见图),7066-7089一线可能形成一个关键的技术支撑点位。
 
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(郑重声明:ACB News《澳华财经在线》对本文保留全部著作权限,转发时请标注来源)


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